S&P 500 · 3-Month Horizon
Market-Implied Distribution
As of March 16, 2026
Expected Return
+1.37%
Market-implied median outcome
Probability of Gain
51.8%
Share of positive outcomes
Skew
Negative
Downside asymmetry remains elevated
Tail Risk
High
Losses are larger than normal models imply
The current distribution shows a positive expected return for the S&P 500 over the next month, with 51.8% of the probability mass in positive territory. However, the negative skew and elevated tail risk indicate that the downside scenarios are materially larger in magnitude than the upside — a pattern that warrants careful attention to position sizing and hedging even when the central tendency is favorable.
Time Series
Distribution Parameter Monitor
The charts below track how the key parameters of the market-implied distribution have evolved over time — including expected return, probability of gain, skew, and tail behavior. Shifts in these parameters often provide early signals of regime change that variance-only frameworks do not capture.
Parameter time series showing the evolution of market-implied distribution characteristics. Persistent deterioration in skew or a declining probability of gain can serve as early-warning indicators of a shifting risk environment.
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